In the ever-evolving world of football analytics, the Rush Yards Over Expected (YOE) metric stands out as a beacon of innovation. Crafted using state-of-the-art machine learning models, YOE delves deep into the expected outcome of each rushing play, considering factors such as game situations, field position, score and down&distance.

But what does this metric really tell us?

To the casual fan, YOE might seem like just another number. However, its implications are far-reaching. It offers a refreshing perspective on a player’s rushing prowess, going beyond the traditional yardage stats. When a player consistently registers a high YOE, it’s a testament to their ability to outperform in challenging situations, often turning what seems like an inevitable loss into a groundbreaking gain.

For teams and analysts, YOE is akin to a treasure trove. It assists in unearthing hidden gems in the roster, players who might not be the stars of highlight reels but are the unsung heroes on the field, consistently outdoing expectations. On the other hand, a low or negative YOE can serve as a red flag, pointing towards potential areas of improvement.

Players themselves can benefit immensely from this metric. A high YOE acts as a badge of honor, affirming their on-field excellence. It’s the hard evidence that showcases their ability to defy the odds and make the most out of each play.

Navigating the Rushing Grid

Peel back the curtain on our rushing landscape, and what you’ll find is a matrix of expectation versus reality. The x-axis? That’s our ground truth, the actual yards players have chalked up. Glide your eyes upwards, and the y-axis reveals what our data anticipated they’d achieve: the expected yards. That diagonal dash? Think of it as football’s 50-yard line. Players darting below it are our overachievers, consistently outrunning expectations. Those hovering above? Well, they’ve got some cleats to fill. And if you’re wondering about the size of those dots – bigger isn’t just better; it indicates more attempts. As we pivot into the details, let’s spotlight a few names that seem to be playing their own game amidst this sea of data. Their stories are about to get a lot more interesting.

Diving Deeper into the European League of Football’s Data

Dawid Brzozowski: A name that stands tall in both YOE and total yardage. With a YOE of 261.32 and a total of 891 yards from 151 rushes, Brzozowski’s performance indicates a player who not only gains significant ground but also consistently surpasses what’s expected of him. His average YOE of 1.73 further cements his position as a force to be reckoned with on the field.
Tomiwa Oyewo: Following closely is Oyewo, with a commendable YOE of 231.49. Despite having fewer rushes (132) compared to Brzozowski, he has an impressive average YOE of 1.75. This means that on an average rush, Oyewo tends to outdo the expected outcome by 1.75 yards, reflecting his exceptional skill and adaptability.
Florian Wegan: Another standout player, Florian Wegan, boasts a YOE of 197.94 from 114 rushes, translating to an average YOE of 1.74. His total yardage of 672 further emphasizes his ability to make significant gains on the field.
Glen Toonga & Preston Haire: Both these players deserve special mentions for their high average YOE values. Toonga, with 2.11, and Haire, with 2.17, demonstrate that while they might have fewer rushes, they make each one count, often outperforming what’s anticipated.
Anton Wegan: An honorable mention goes to Anton Wegan. Eventhough he only gained 210 rushing yards in the season so far, he was able to gain almost twice the yardage expected by our model leading to an average of rushing yards over expected of 4.25.
Silas Nacita: A tale of caution, Nacita’s stats offer an intriguing narrative. Despite accumulating 484 yards, his YOE stands at a concerning -44.36. This suggests that while he gains yards, he often falls short of the expected outcome.
Gerald Ameln & Jadrian Clark: These players highlight the challenges on the field. Ameln’s YOE of -123.20 over 89 rushes and Clark’s startling average YOE of -2.62 (from just 18 rushes) suggest areas of improvement. They’re reminders that football is as much about strategy and adaptability as it is about raw skill.

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© Łukasz Skwiot